Natalie Portman#39;s Black
alisa
01-27 09:25 AM
I am glad you posted this.
I will put the numbers in the excel spreadsheet and see what comes out.
But these might give more sensible results than the preposterous wait times that we were getting.
If the average depletion rate for India is 34K per annum, then the wait times would look a lot better I think.
I am assuming that these numbers include the dependents. So, if 34K adjustment of status were awareded, then, roughly speaking, there were 17K primary applicants, and 17K dependents? Am I correct?
Also, for the accumulation rate, when we say that 65K H-1 visas are given out annually, I am assuming that does not include the dependents. Am I right??
FISCAL ------ Employment ------- EB3
YEAR ----- Total ---- INDIA | Total --- India
2000 ----- 111,024 | 15888 | 51,711 | -5567 :IV FY 2000 (http://travel.state.gov/pdf/FY2000%20table%20V.pdf)
2001 ----- 186,536 | 41720 | 90,274 | 16405 :IV FY 2001 (http://travel.state.gov/pdf/FY2001%20table%20V.pdf)
2002 ----- 171,583 | 41919 | 87,574 | 17428 :IV FY 2002 (http://travel.state.gov/pdf/FY2002%20table%20V.pdf)
2003 ----- -83,020 | 20818 | 47,354 | 10680 :IV FY 2003 (http://travel.state.gov/pdf/FY2003%20table%20V.pdf)
2004 ----- 157,107 | 39496 | 88,114 | 19962 :IV FY 2004 (http://travel.state.gov/pdf/FY04tableV.pdf)
2005 ----- 242,335 | 47160 |122,130 | 23399 :IV FY 2005 (http://travel.state.gov/pdf/FY05tableV.pdf)
6 yr total - 951,605| 207001| 487,157| 93441
Annual Avg --------- 34500 | -------- 15574
If this trend would have continued. There should not be any MAJOR retrogression problem, but if you remember from the Nov 05 VB. The warning was very clear:
During FY due to anticipated heavy demand, the AC21 provisions are not expected to apply, and the amount of Employment numbers available to any single country will be subject to the 7% cap. It is anticipated that the addition of unused FY-2005 Family numbers and the remaining AC21 numbers to the 140,000 annual minimum will result in an FY-2006 annual Employment limit of 152,000. This will mean an Employment per-country limit for FY-2006 of approximately 10,650.
To illustrate the effect of the reduced per-county limitation during FY-2006 on the oversubscribed countries, it should be noted that during FY-2005 India used approximately 47,175 Employment numbers.
If you plug this number into your analysis the result might be a couple of years of advance for your predictions.
andy
I will put the numbers in the excel spreadsheet and see what comes out.
But these might give more sensible results than the preposterous wait times that we were getting.
If the average depletion rate for India is 34K per annum, then the wait times would look a lot better I think.
I am assuming that these numbers include the dependents. So, if 34K adjustment of status were awareded, then, roughly speaking, there were 17K primary applicants, and 17K dependents? Am I correct?
Also, for the accumulation rate, when we say that 65K H-1 visas are given out annually, I am assuming that does not include the dependents. Am I right??
FISCAL ------ Employment ------- EB3
YEAR ----- Total ---- INDIA | Total --- India
2000 ----- 111,024 | 15888 | 51,711 | -5567 :IV FY 2000 (http://travel.state.gov/pdf/FY2000%20table%20V.pdf)
2001 ----- 186,536 | 41720 | 90,274 | 16405 :IV FY 2001 (http://travel.state.gov/pdf/FY2001%20table%20V.pdf)
2002 ----- 171,583 | 41919 | 87,574 | 17428 :IV FY 2002 (http://travel.state.gov/pdf/FY2002%20table%20V.pdf)
2003 ----- -83,020 | 20818 | 47,354 | 10680 :IV FY 2003 (http://travel.state.gov/pdf/FY2003%20table%20V.pdf)
2004 ----- 157,107 | 39496 | 88,114 | 19962 :IV FY 2004 (http://travel.state.gov/pdf/FY04tableV.pdf)
2005 ----- 242,335 | 47160 |122,130 | 23399 :IV FY 2005 (http://travel.state.gov/pdf/FY05tableV.pdf)
6 yr total - 951,605| 207001| 487,157| 93441
Annual Avg --------- 34500 | -------- 15574
If this trend would have continued. There should not be any MAJOR retrogression problem, but if you remember from the Nov 05 VB. The warning was very clear:
During FY due to anticipated heavy demand, the AC21 provisions are not expected to apply, and the amount of Employment numbers available to any single country will be subject to the 7% cap. It is anticipated that the addition of unused FY-2005 Family numbers and the remaining AC21 numbers to the 140,000 annual minimum will result in an FY-2006 annual Employment limit of 152,000. This will mean an Employment per-country limit for FY-2006 of approximately 10,650.
To illustrate the effect of the reduced per-county limitation during FY-2006 on the oversubscribed countries, it should be noted that during FY-2005 India used approximately 47,175 Employment numbers.
If you plug this number into your analysis the result might be a couple of years of advance for your predictions.
andy
wallpaper Natalie Portman#39;s Black
Natalie Portman Lived
transpass
04-09 10:20 PM
This is an "Ouch..." visa bulletin.
Dont want to be passimistic or discourage anyone; I have always been optimistic and will remain so...
However, this suggests that there will not be any fall down (previously called spillover) from EB4 and may not even be much from EB5 (Last year this was the major factor that gave 10k additional numbers to EB2 India). Lookes like people are finding alternate ways (who can) by these routes.
EB1 used up all its numbers last year and we dont know what will happen this year.
EB2 ROW usage looks low, but then again no movement in EB2 India...
Patience and persistence....
Good Luck to all of us.
Does anyone have numbers for spillover last year category wise? I mean, last year how many EB4, EB5 and EB1 left out visas got spilled over to EB2? Thanks...
Dont want to be passimistic or discourage anyone; I have always been optimistic and will remain so...
However, this suggests that there will not be any fall down (previously called spillover) from EB4 and may not even be much from EB5 (Last year this was the major factor that gave 10k additional numbers to EB2 India). Lookes like people are finding alternate ways (who can) by these routes.
EB1 used up all its numbers last year and we dont know what will happen this year.
EB2 ROW usage looks low, but then again no movement in EB2 India...
Patience and persistence....
Good Luck to all of us.
Does anyone have numbers for spillover last year category wise? I mean, last year how many EB4, EB5 and EB1 left out visas got spilled over to EB2? Thanks...
Natalie Portman is hotly
andy garcia
09-28 08:21 AM
Which European countries are they from? Their opinion can be relevant in this context if they are from a rich EU country, but less convincing if they are from Albania, for example.
France and Sweden are OK for you.
France and Sweden are OK for you.
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Natalie Portman trained at
Ramba
02-21 03:00 PM
Assuming you are right then,
average visa issued for EB1 ROW+Non ROW over the last 5 years have been 26K,
Now assuming this year the demand would be close to average then. It leaves 14K for EB2
Implying 12/2003 dates movement is very likely as 14k>5k (your number)
Dont rely on tracitt. no one knows how many report there. It is not scientific or true. For right numbers, anlyse the DOS report for each year, if you hva more time.
http://travel.state.gov/visa/frvi/statistics/statistics_1476.html
average visa issued for EB1 ROW+Non ROW over the last 5 years have been 26K,
Now assuming this year the demand would be close to average then. It leaves 14K for EB2
Implying 12/2003 dates movement is very likely as 14k>5k (your number)
Dont rely on tracitt. no one knows how many report there. It is not scientific or true. For right numbers, anlyse the DOS report for each year, if you hva more time.
http://travel.state.gov/visa/frvi/statistics/statistics_1476.html
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Black Swan stars Natalie
Jerrome
07-12 05:28 PM
I feel this move is to benefit EB-2 China, Since the EB1 and EB2 overflow are evenly distributed across china and india, keeping PD with 2004 would be a loss for china and gain for India. So by keeping 2006 June, USCIS will have enough visa numbers for China . India's share will be consumed by 2004 and 2005 applicants.
Even if India's PD is going to be in 2006 mid, this would result some adhoc or lucky one in 2006 getting GC than a majority of applicants. PD for india would move back to 2004 or 2005 by october 08.
If USCIS follows the same rule again then by next year end the PD for India will move.
This is my guess.
Even if India's PD is going to be in 2006 mid, this would result some adhoc or lucky one in 2006 getting GC than a majority of applicants. PD for india would move back to 2004 or 2005 by october 08.
If USCIS follows the same rule again then by next year end the PD for India will move.
This is my guess.
Natalie Portman runs into the
leoindiano
03-17 10:58 AM
Yes, mine was in Philly BEC too...which was approved in 2007 January.
But, there was quite a few go lucky people whose labor was getting approved in 30 days state, 30 days federal until that time. thats why i took 50-50 probability.
But, there was quite a few go lucky people whose labor was getting approved in 30 days state, 30 days federal until that time. thats why i took 50-50 probability.
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Natalie Portman#39;s Black Swan
ashwin_27
02-07 06:09 PM
I will be traveling from the west coast and am trying to find other South Cal folks who are travelling to the event. Maybe we can coordinate travel, if possible.
Also, would appreciate any car pooling options when in DC/VA.
Also, would appreciate any car pooling options when in DC/VA.
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Natalie Portman and Mila Kunis
gjoe
12-11 06:26 PM
If US does not benefit from giving the visas, are they doing it as a part of social service?
Social Service GC is called as Asylum and that comes with added benefits like medicaid and social security checks for a few years.
Black Hole research GC is also called EB3 GC which comes with lot of uncertanities until you really get it :) Unfortunately many of us choose this type because of our math and science background :)
Social Service GC is called as Asylum and that comes with added benefits like medicaid and social security checks for a few years.
Black Hole research GC is also called EB3 GC which comes with lot of uncertanities until you really get it :) Unfortunately many of us choose this type because of our math and science background :)
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abhijitp
07-24 12:15 PM
I'm not expert in advising but murthy.com is saying avoid duplicate filing that may lead to rejection. Would suggest to consult v.good attorney before you do.
I have seen that on murthy too. I am not sure why they say that. Anyone else who ever submitted multiple AOS applications?
I am sure people have submitted two separate apps in cases such as:
1) both husband and wife working and eligible to file. One app submitted with husband primary, wife secondary AND the other app submitted with wife primary, husband secondary
2) AOS for old labor + AOS under PERM
In both cases I believe the USCIS will ask you to choose between the two when the time comes.
I have seen that on murthy too. I am not sure why they say that. Anyone else who ever submitted multiple AOS applications?
I am sure people have submitted two separate apps in cases such as:
1) both husband and wife working and eligible to file. One app submitted with husband primary, wife secondary AND the other app submitted with wife primary, husband secondary
2) AOS for old labor + AOS under PERM
In both cases I believe the USCIS will ask you to choose between the two when the time comes.
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NATALIE PORTMAN#39;S FIANCE IS
Macaca
09-10 04:44 PM
Money Comes and Goes
You Live for the
History Books
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His Airness, Michael Jordan: The Best Ever
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leoindiano
03-17 09:59 AM
Substitute labors for EB2 should not IMPACT the delay more than 3 to 6 months. The reason is total EB2 labor india cases approved with PD in 2004 itself is 3500(Straight out of DOL database, published on this forum last year). Some of these cases may have been substituted, worst case, lets say 100% of them applied to I-485. Now the number is 3 times that of 3500. that is 10500(including spouse and 1 child on average).
Another thing you need to consider is If anycase had a PD before sept 2004 and was filed for I-485 before July 2007. That must have got the approval unless there was a namecheck delay.
That should reduce the number to half., 5500(including dependent cases). This is my educated guess, Please dont pick on me. It wont help anybody.
Below are 3 categories left in 2004 as per my analysis....
1) the applications filed in or after july 2007 OR
2) applications had a PD after sept 2004
3) Namecheck delayed cases.
Another thing you need to consider is If anycase had a PD before sept 2004 and was filed for I-485 before July 2007. That must have got the approval unless there was a namecheck delay.
That should reduce the number to half., 5500(including dependent cases). This is my educated guess, Please dont pick on me. It wont help anybody.
Below are 3 categories left in 2004 as per my analysis....
1) the applications filed in or after july 2007 OR
2) applications had a PD after sept 2004
3) Namecheck delayed cases.
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Slim Natalie Portman At NYC
map_boiler
07-05 05:30 PM
Guys, please contribute to IV. I just did today, and believe me, you will feel better for doing so...
This is not just for you and me, but also for those who will come after us. Also, this is not a battle just to sue USCIS/DOS, but a war we need to fight on multiple fronts:
1) First and foremost, we the immigrant community need to join hands and fight as one cohesive group.
2) Sue the government agencies for damages/violation of law/precedents due to the revised visa bulletin
3) Get this matter the attention it deserves in the media
4) Try and get congress to intervene in this matter, and also introduce and pass legislation that will fix the broken employment based immigration system
5) Request corporate sponsorship. Since employers spent money on this fiasco as well, they will have a vested interest in pursuing this as well.
The main thing, however, is funds. IV needs funds to fight for us. Each of us has already spent 100's (many even 1000's) of $ trying to get ready to file our I-485's. So even if 10,000 members contribute just $100 each, it will be $1 mil. I am sure each of us can at least spare that much. It is a small price to pay for liberation from this GC mess for all of us....
With ~15,000 members already, and hopefully some serious $$$$$$ raised, IV will be a force to be reckoned with. No one will be able to treat us with such utter disdain ever again...
This is not just for you and me, but also for those who will come after us. Also, this is not a battle just to sue USCIS/DOS, but a war we need to fight on multiple fronts:
1) First and foremost, we the immigrant community need to join hands and fight as one cohesive group.
2) Sue the government agencies for damages/violation of law/precedents due to the revised visa bulletin
3) Get this matter the attention it deserves in the media
4) Try and get congress to intervene in this matter, and also introduce and pass legislation that will fix the broken employment based immigration system
5) Request corporate sponsorship. Since employers spent money on this fiasco as well, they will have a vested interest in pursuing this as well.
The main thing, however, is funds. IV needs funds to fight for us. Each of us has already spent 100's (many even 1000's) of $ trying to get ready to file our I-485's. So even if 10,000 members contribute just $100 each, it will be $1 mil. I am sure each of us can at least spare that much. It is a small price to pay for liberation from this GC mess for all of us....
With ~15,000 members already, and hopefully some serious $$$$$$ raised, IV will be a force to be reckoned with. No one will be able to treat us with such utter disdain ever again...
more...
house Portman#39;s performance won the
a allet dancer in a
boreal
12-28 10:28 AM
I have posted it on Craig's list:
http://sfbay.craigslist.org/sby/vol/254456446.html
http://sfbay.craigslist.org/sby/vol/254456446.html
tattoo Natalie Portman runs into the
Natalie Portman As #39;Black
nomi
12-13 09:54 AM
I am sure the IV core would have thought about this option of contacting USCIS and let them know the problems because of retrogression.
But I like the idea of collecting 10$ for the fax and creating awareness. Lets move.
so let find out who is dead of department of homeland Security and get addresses , phone number and fax. USCIS is branch of DHS. That`s where we need to contact them and ask them what we THEY can do for us and what are our legal options
please someone work with core team to get that fax letter ready. I can do that if core team allow me
thx.
But I like the idea of collecting 10$ for the fax and creating awareness. Lets move.
so let find out who is dead of department of homeland Security and get addresses , phone number and fax. USCIS is branch of DHS. That`s where we need to contact them and ask them what we THEY can do for us and what are our legal options
please someone work with core team to get that fax letter ready. I can do that if core team allow me
thx.
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kondur_007
06-08 07:01 PM
There is going to be no spillover to EB2 India at all because according to the thread "Employment-Based Visa Number Movement and Predictions - from current Murthy Bulletin" thread Mr. Oppenheim (the guy from the DOS who sets the visa bulletin) said that EB1, EB4 and Eb5 might also retrogress (that is have to a cut off date which means they will not be current). If EB1, EB2 and EB5 retrogress and there is no spillover from EB2 ROW and there is no spillover from Family based visas there will not be any spillover to Eb2 India at all. There is absoluetely no difference between Eb3 India and Eb2 India except that EB3 India will be stuck in 2001 and Eb2 India might be stuck either in 2002 or early 2003. We are screwed for ages to come. Dont give me red for bringing this harsh reality, I myself am depressed
Nobody should get red for expressing their thought!! So if at all I give you some, it would be only green!
coming to your point: Even in the thread you referenced to, I have posted a comment "Mr. Oppenheim's statements do not add up...his statements logically contradict each other (well you can not expect LOGIC from USCIS). and so the exact scenario will only be clarified with VB, date movements and finally, their year end statistics".
Accordingly, moving the EB2 I and C together, they have proven that "they are getting ready to spill over". Moreover, EB2 China has used up "its own quota" and will need spill over to move. EB2 ROW on the other had has not used up "its own quota" and will not need spill over (as it is current and not together with India and china). So any spill over from EB1 will come to EB2 India and China (effectively only to India). And if EB2 ROW does not use up their remaining numbers (which they have not so far) during the rest of fiscal year they will also spill to EB2 India.
Now as far as future of EB2 vs EB3 is concerned, I personally believe (and this is just my personal belief....) that unless EB1 (specially EB1C) gets oversubscribed (as mentioned in other threads), EB2 should move quickly during next fiscal year. EB1 usage can only be known from year end data as and when they publish it.
Nobody should get red for expressing their thought!! So if at all I give you some, it would be only green!
coming to your point: Even in the thread you referenced to, I have posted a comment "Mr. Oppenheim's statements do not add up...his statements logically contradict each other (well you can not expect LOGIC from USCIS). and so the exact scenario will only be clarified with VB, date movements and finally, their year end statistics".
Accordingly, moving the EB2 I and C together, they have proven that "they are getting ready to spill over". Moreover, EB2 China has used up "its own quota" and will need spill over to move. EB2 ROW on the other had has not used up "its own quota" and will not need spill over (as it is current and not together with India and china). So any spill over from EB1 will come to EB2 India and China (effectively only to India). And if EB2 ROW does not use up their remaining numbers (which they have not so far) during the rest of fiscal year they will also spill to EB2 India.
Now as far as future of EB2 vs EB3 is concerned, I personally believe (and this is just my personal belief....) that unless EB1 (specially EB1C) gets oversubscribed (as mentioned in other threads), EB2 should move quickly during next fiscal year. EB1 usage can only be known from year end data as and when they publish it.
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Natalie Portman, Black Swan
perm2gc
01-10 06:21 PM
http://www.immigration-information.com/forums/forumdisplay.php?f=33
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Portman#39;s performance won the
jungalee43
01-22 11:53 AM
Army honors its fallen heroes post-thumously.
Without IV; many of us will get GCs post-thumously and thank god they have made address change on line now. We have a tool now to convey them addresses of graves!!!!
:D :D :D
Without IV; many of us will get GCs post-thumously and thank god they have made address change on line now. We have a tool now to convey them addresses of graves!!!!
:D :D :D
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go_gc_way
12-28 11:13 AM
Thanks Boreal,Subba.
I looked at the following sites
1) www.aapkamanoranjan.com
2) www.lokvani.com (This is a paper magazine as well).
Wrote to the editors of lokvani, if they can post a classified , they do not have free classifieds. aapkamanoranjan, wont let me send them feedback or contact them.
This is a good beginning. We have posted in several sites, having completed this we all will have completed a good effort for IV (INFACT FOR YOU)
Can other members please come forward and list the sites that are regional in their cities and post in them .... 15 minutes and you will have contributed to this thread :-).
What do you folks suggest, shall I change the thread name to something more attractive ...to get evrey one's one's attention on the Forum first. :-)
I looked at the following sites
1) www.aapkamanoranjan.com
2) www.lokvani.com (This is a paper magazine as well).
Wrote to the editors of lokvani, if they can post a classified , they do not have free classifieds. aapkamanoranjan, wont let me send them feedback or contact them.
This is a good beginning. We have posted in several sites, having completed this we all will have completed a good effort for IV (INFACT FOR YOU)
Can other members please come forward and list the sites that are regional in their cities and post in them .... 15 minutes and you will have contributed to this thread :-).
What do you folks suggest, shall I change the thread name to something more attractive ...to get evrey one's one's attention on the Forum first. :-)
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jnraajan
03-17 05:00 PM
From the poll results for EB3 priority Dates, I think, I learned something. People waiting for Green Card Pre-PERM are way more than people Waiting POST-PERM. This is an approximate comparision(before Dec 2004 and after Dec 2004, though PERM started in Apr 2005.)
What I am trying to see is, Whether we can very little membership from people who started their GC process after Mar 2005. If that is the case, why those people are not joining IV? Believe it or not, They would also love to have their GC's right now. Something seems to be wrong. We should probably come up with some ways to target those people who are still waiting to file their I-485 or having their Labor Pending.
What do you all say?
What I am trying to see is, Whether we can very little membership from people who started their GC process after Mar 2005. If that is the case, why those people are not joining IV? Believe it or not, They would also love to have their GC's right now. Something seems to be wrong. We should probably come up with some ways to target those people who are still waiting to file their I-485 or having their Labor Pending.
What do you all say?
ramus
07-05 02:02 PM
Can we please stop this discussion and follow some action items...
Lets stop this now...
Thanks...
Lets stop this now...
Thanks...
mirage
07-02 08:03 AM
I think you guys keep forgetting IV's success of getting it's amendments as brownback amendment in the CIR last fall. The beauty was the amendment was not even discussed or debated or voted by the senate as it was added by Sen. specter as manager's amendment. So don't make loose statements about IV.
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